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T-Wolves are brutal; the system they fall into is not
2010-03-10

It’s another play out the season campaign for Minnesota, with a well deserved 14-50 record , ranking 23rd in field goal percentage at 44.9 percent and 25th in field goal percentage defense at 47.5. About the only good news, if someone wants to call it that, is the Timberwolves are 32-32 against the spread, however losing by 9.8 points per game suggests more disinterested opponents not covering the spread than Minnesota bringing something positive to the party. On Wednesday, the Wolves play host to the Nuggets and the game is accompanied by an incredible FoxSheets system on the total. Sportsbook.com has this number set at 216.

The basketball gods toyed with the T-Wolves, allowing them to win and cover four games in a row from Jan. 29 – Feb. 6, giving them a false sense of turning their season around. That ended up being similar to a 70 degree day in Minneapolis in February, nice, but reality will soon be coming back to normal.

Minnesota has gone on to lose 12 of next 13 contests, including the last six in a row. In this deplorable stretch, the Timberwolves have surrendered 115.9 point per game, a full 9.2 points above their 29th ranked scoring defense that has allowed 106.7 PPG on the entire season. The high water mark or lowest point if you will was last contest against Dallas, where they conceded 125 points in losing by 13, making it their fourth consecutive Over game.

Tonight’s opponent Denver is No. 1 in the Northwest Division, third in the Western Conference and second in the NBA in scoring at 107.6 points per game.
Sportsbook.com has announced the Nuggets as eight-point favorite, with a total of 216. Throw all of this information into the “Big Brain Machine” and this is what you get.
Play the Over when the total is greater than or equal to 200, the home team is off a home loss by 10 points or more, with a winning percentage under 25 percent, playing a team with a winning record.

Sports betting losers are always thinking sports is fixed (have you ever heard somebody that wins at sporting betting say the games are fixed, oh that’s right, they are in on it) and wish they could be on part of the action. While intelligent sports bettors knows there is no such thing as a “lock”, they have a complete understanding of finding information that puts the chances of winning on their side.
For example, the last five NBA seasons have seen this specific totals system produce a 21-1 record, that 95.4 percent if you are keeping score at home. The average total score of this particular system is 220.5 points per game (well above tonight’s matchup), dating back to 1996.

If you want to look at one NBA game today, be sure to break this one down.

NBA: Top NBA Weekend Power Trends 3/5-3/7
2010-03-05

I know it…it’s easy to forget about the NBA at this time of the year. March is about college basketball, right? Well, the savvy bettor acknowledges every opportunity he is given and takes advantage if the situation warrants. With that in mind, the NBA board is loaded with 26 games this weekend, at least six each day. This weekend’s Top StatFox Betting Trends piece should help you separate some of the strong plays from the weak. Read on for a look at some of the featured action over the next three days, plus the list of the top trends you’ll want to consider as you build your wagering lineup.

On Friday, the weekend is kicked off with 11 different games, two of which will make up the ESPN doubleheader. In the first one, the Cavaliers will host division rival, Detroit. For whatever reason, Cleveland was strangely NOT on TNT Thursday night so this won’t be a back-to-back situation. LeBron & Co. have won four straight games, both SU & ATS, as they begin consecutive games against Central Division foes. For the record, they are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in division play this season. The Pistons are 2-8 SU & 2-7-1 ATS in that scenario. In the late game, New Orleans and San Antonio will get together for the second time in five days, with the Hornets looking to avenge a 106-92 loss on Monday at home. The Spurs are still trying to figure things out this season and despite being 10-games over .500, are just 7-14 ATS in their L21 games. Elsewhere, the red-hot Bucks will be in Washington, sporting an 18-3-1 ATS mark in their L22 games, including a 100-87 win over the Wizards on Wednesday. Also, watch for the Lakers in Charlotte, and the Mavericks, winners of their last nine games, hosting Sacramento.

On Saturday, there are nine games to choose from, including several with teams in back-to-back scenarios. Two that I mentioned earlier, the Bucks and Cavaliers, will go head-to-head in Milwaukee. HC Scott Skiles’ team boasts a 10-6 SU & 12-3-1 ATS mark on zero days rest while the Cavs are just 6-9 ATS. Also on Saturday, Atlanta will visit Miami. The Heat are scuffling a bit again, having lost four straight ATS. They are also just 12-17 ATS at home, plus 4-10 SU & 5-9 ATS on the back end of back-to-back’s. In Memphis, the Spurs will come calling, with the Grizzlies trailing San Antonio by four games in the Western Conference standings.

Sunday is once again national TV day in the NBA, with three games set for the tube. On ABC at 2:30 PM ET, the Lakers will take on the Magic in Orlando. Obviously, the Lakers are in good shape in the West, leading the conference standings by 5-1/2 games entering the weekend over Dallas. However, HC Phil Jackson has to be concerned about this trend going forward: LA LAKERS are 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was LA LAKERS 94.9, OPPONENT 98.1 - (Rating = 1*). The Magic are playing well again and have lost just six times at home this season. A bit later on ESPN, Boston will host Washington. The Celtics are not playing well of late but did turn back Charlotte by 24 points on Wednesday and could be ready to turn the corner. Wrapping up the night are Portland and Denver. The Blazers boast a 4-1/2 game lead for the 8th and final playoff spot out West and have come alive by winning five of six games. They will have been off since Wednesday and boast a 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS mark when playing on 3+ days rest.

Now, here’s a look at those top StatFox Power Trends you’ll want to consider in your wagering action this weekend:

Friday, 3/5/2010
(807) NEW YORK vs. (808) TORONTO
NEW YORK is 29-13 ATS (+14.7 Units) revenging 2 straight losses where opp. scored >=100 points over last 2 seasons. The average score was NEW YORK 105.4, OPPONENT 105.8 - (Rating = 2*)

(809) BOSTON vs. (810) PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA is 0-10 ATS (-11 Units) at home vs. good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/g over the L3 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 95.7, OPPONENT 106.1 - (Rating = 2*)

(813) ORLANDO vs. (814) NEW JERSEY
ORLANDO is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ORLANDO 106.5, OPPONENT 92.4 - (Rating = 3*)

(813) ORLANDO vs. (814) NEW JERSEY
ORLANDO is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) on Friday nights this season. The average score was ORLANDO 93.5, OPPONENT 92.4 - (Rating = 3*)

(815) SACRAMENTO vs. (816) DALLAS
DALLAS is 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The average score was DALLAS 101.5, OPPONENT 98.7 - (Rating = 2*)

Saturday, 3/6/2010
(503) ATLANTA vs. (504) MIAMI
ATLANTA is 27-8 UNDER (+18.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 91.6, OPPONENT 93.3 - (Rating = 3*)

(505) NEW JERSEY vs. (506) NEW YORK
NEW JERSEY is 3-17 ATS (-15.7 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season. The average score was NEW JERSEY 92.3, OPPONENT 107 - (Rating = 4*)

(513) CLEVELAND vs. (514) MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 95.3, OPPONENT 102 - (Rating = 1*)

(517) INDIANA vs. (518) PHOENIX
PHOENIX is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) vs. poor teams outscored by 3+ PPG in 2nd half of the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHOENIX 121.9, OPPONENT 106.7 - (Rating = 2*)

Sunday, 3/7/2010
(803) LA LAKERS vs. (804) ORLANDO
LA LAKERS are 23-8 UNDER (+14.2 Units) on Sunday games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA LAKERS 103.1, OPPONENT 93.1 - (Rating = 2*)

(807) WASHINGTON vs. (808) BOSTON
BOSTON is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ PPG this season. The average score was BOSTON 99.7, OPPONENT 95.1 - (Rating = 2*)

(807) WASHINGTON vs. (808) BOSTON
WASHINGTON is 10-0 UNDER (+10 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. The average score was WASHINGTON 93.8, OPPONENT 96.6 - (Rating = 4*)

(811) PORTLAND vs. (812) DENVER
DENVER is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DENVER 107.6, OPPONENT 98.7 - (Rating = 1*)

NBA: Utah at Phoenix (10:30 PM ET, TNT)
2010-03-05

As two of the Western Conference’s best home teams, it’s safe to say the Utah Jazz and the Phoenix Suns will be going all out to try to lock up home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Three head-to-head meetings over the final six weeks might determine if either one can secure it. The Suns look for an eighth win in nine games overall and a sixth straight victory at US Airways Center on Thursday night when they host the Jazz in a potential first-round playoff preview. Phoenix is a slight 1.5-point favorite at Sportsbook.com and getting the lion’s share of support from bettors.

Phoenix (39-24, 36-26-1 ATS) went nearly two months (Dec. 1-Jan. 26) without winning three in a row after three separate four-game winning streaks during the first month of the season, but has gotten back on track of late.

One game out of a playoff spot on Jan. 27, the Suns have since gone 13-3 to pull into the West’s No. 5 slot - one-half game behind Utah (38-22, 36-21-3 ATS). They’ve won seven of eight (8-0 ATS) and have limited opponents to 92.0 points per game - 11.2 below their season average - while winning five straight at home. Phoenix has the fifth best record against the spread in the NBA and is 9-1 ATS playing against a team with win percentage of 60-70% this season.

Don’t think the Suns have suddenly turned into the Pat Riley coached Knicks of the 1990’s, with strictly defensive focus; they still lead the league in points scored at 109.4 points per game. The scorching Suns are heating up the opposition on a current 14-2 spread run.

While the Suns embarrassed the Clippers on their home floor, Utah was unable to do the same Monday. The Jazz fell behind Los Angeles by 17 points in the fourth quarter. They mounted a late rally, but came up short and lost 108-104.

Utah fell to 6-10 in games decided by five points or fewer (6-9-1 ATS), with three of those defeats coming in Jerry Sloan’s club’s last five games. “You’re going to have 10 or 15 games that you look back on after the season and say maybe you should have won those,” Sloan said. “But the other teams have those games as well, so you can’t worry about those games once they’re over. I automatically forget - because I can’t remember.” It is however worth remembering the Jazz are 11-2 ATS off a road loss this season.

Deron Williams has been in a shooting slump, but he’s not having trouble finding his teammates. Williams has had 10 consecutive double-digit assist games overall, and six in a row against Phoenix. Utah arrives in downtown Phoenix 15-5 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this campaign.

Sportsbook.com has Utah as 1.5-point underdog with total of 213 and they are 10-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Suns low number appears off a bit since they have the fourth best spread mark of 17-12-1 on their home floor, however, that is essentially negated with the Jazz 16-11-1 ATS. The Suns are brimming with confidence and are 11-2 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 99 or more points a game in the second portion of the schedule.

These teams meet again in Phoenix on March 19 before closing the regular season in Salt Lake City on April 14. Tonight’s tilt is on TNT starting around 10:35 Eastern and the Suns are 11-0 OVER off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival over the last two seasons. The StatFox Power Line shows Phoenix by 3

Monday Means all Systems Go in NBA
2010-02-22

The Utah Jazz are the hottest team in the NBA, winners of 13 of 14 (11-2-1 ATS) and last four in a row, all on the road. They return home against Atlanta who is wrapping up its four game road trip, who has the edge? For the answer to this and other NBA betting edges, read on about today’s top system plays in professional hoops. Get the latest prices on all of Monday’s five games on the LIVE ODDS page of Sportsbook.com.

Chicago (-3, 201) at Washington

Even with an eye on next season already, Chicago Bulls’ players are focused on the present. The Bulls front office has made trades freeing cap space to go after at least one of the enticing free agents in the market place after the season, however the current collection of players have covered seven of eight and five in a row. For tonight’s matchup, the total draws the most attention since road teams with a total of 200 or higher, off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, against opponent after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, are 32-10 OVER since 1996.

Milwaukee (+1.5, 206.5) at New York

The New York Knicks have lost six straight and almost won as Tracy McGrady made his debut in the Knicks uniform, falling 121-118 to Oklahoma City Saturday night. Having lost three of four at home to Milwaukee, tonight’s situation does not set up much better as teams revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a home favorite, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, are 43-70 ATS since 2004-05, including all six this year.

Indiana (+9, 208.5) at Dallas

The Dallas Mavericks have a run of the mill home record at 17-9; however they are positively disgusting or delightful, depending on what side you wager on them, with a league worst 6-20 ATS home record. Everything doesn’t figure to improve immediately, since home teams playing their fifth game in a week, with a win percent of 60 to 75 percent, playing a team with a losing record, are 20-55 the last 12 years.

Atlanta (+5, 196) at Utah

Both teams are playing their third game in four days, with one obvious distinction; Atlanta has lost their last two, while Utah has won not only previous two, but four in a row. That in theory at least gives the Jazz the edge as home teams covering the spread in four or more consecutive games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 31-7 ATS.

NBA: Boston at Portland (10:30 PM ET, ESPN)
2010-02-19

The night cap on ESPN finds the Boston Celtics playing 2,500 miles from home in Portland. That distance hasn’t proven a problem of late though, as the Celtics have won four of their L5 games there. Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com see that turning tonight though, with the Blazers playing as the 2-point favorites.

Boston (34-18, 20-31-3 ATS) got away with another subpar offensive game, beating the Los Angeles Lakers 87-86 on Thursday night. Ray Allen scored 12 of his 24 points in the third quarter against a Lakers team that was without injured star Kobe Bryant.

The Celtics, who were held under 90 points for the third time in four games, are hoping their new guard, Nate Robinson, can provide a boost. Boston received Robinson and Marcus Landry in a trade with New York on Wednesday, giving up Eddie House, J.R. Giddens, Bill Walker and a future conditional second-round pick. Bean-Town backers wouldn’t mind if Robinson helped them cover a few more pointspreads, since they are 1-7 ATS off a cover.

With Marcus Camby now in town, Portland (32-24, 31-24-1 ATS) has one of the league’s top defenders. Camby is expected to make his Blazers debut Friday, giving them a much-needed post presence. Looking to fill the void left by Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla - who are both out for the season due to knee injuries - Portland acquired Camby from the Los Angeles Clippers on Tuesday in exchange for Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw. He joins a team that is 2-5 ATS at home against clubs with a winning road record.

Camby was the defensive player of the year for the 2006-07 season and is a two-time member of the NBA all-defensive team. He’s looking forward to playing again with Portland point guard Andre Miller, his teammate on three playoff teams with Denver from 2003-05. “I love to play with Andre Miller because he is so unselfish,” Camby said.

Miller, though, may be without his backcourt mate, Brandon Roy, who is probable for this game because of a hamstring injury. After missing 15 of the previous 16 games, Roy tried to play against the Clippers on Tuesday night, but he ended up sitting out the second half of the Blazers’ 109-87 victory.

Roy is averaging a team-high 22.6 points. His injury caused him to miss Portland’s 98-95 overtime loss to Boston on Jan. 22. Allen hit a 3-pointer with 42 seconds left in OT, giving the Celtics eight wins in their last nine matchups with the Blazers.

Oddsmakers have made Portland a two-point favorite with total of 186.5. Boston is .500 playing with no rest this season and 3-7 ATS (1-4 ATS last five). With the Celtics lack of offense, they are 7-1 UNDER in last eight contests, including five in a row. Portland has been surprisingly undistinguished at home with a 19-11 record (.500 ATS). The Blazers are however 20-8 ATS on Friday’s and 6-1 OVER.

Boston is 8-2 SU and ATS against Portland with 4-1 ATS (3-2 SU) mark at the Rose Garden. The StatFox Power Line shows a potential under-pricing, Portland by 6